Navigating Policy Uncertainty

Navigating Policy Uncertainty

Performance Review & Outlook

Highlights

  • Policy Uncertainty Weighing on Market Sentiment: The potential for tariffs and federal workforce reductions weighed on consumer sentiment in February.
  • Softer Economic Data Provided Another Headwind for Markets: Weaker retail sales and personal spending numbers suggest that the U.S. economy started 2025 on a softer footing.
  • Fixed Income Market Rally: The 10-year U.S. Government Bond opened the month at 4.55%, peaked at 4.62%, and closed at 4.20%, its lowest level since December of last year.
  • Equity Market Concentration Downside on Display 2.0: Once again, we saw the downside of market concentration. The “Magnificent 7” stocks dragged U.S. equity markets lower in February.
  • Watch for a Modest Increase in Jobless Claims: Federal workforce reductions may slightly raise jobless claims in coming weeks. Focus on the private sector’s ability to absorb those losses—an important test of economic strength.
  • Remain Cautiously Optimistic for 2025: While we continue to believe the economy is in a good place and maintain a positive outlook, we believe it’s a good time to revisit your overall allocation to make sure it aligns with your long-term goals.

Equity Markets

U.S. equity indices mostly declined in February, despite a rebound on the final day of trading. Investors faced weaker economic data and a drop in consumer confidence, likely due to concerns about the new administration’s trade policies and recent reductions in the federal workforce.

The S&P 500 ended the month down 1.3%, falling as much as 4.7% from its high on February 19 to its low on February 27, before recovering on Friday.

Large-cap growth stocks were hit hardest, with the “Magnificent 7” leading the decline, posting an 8.7% drop for the month. Meanwhile, defensive sectors saw relative strength, with consumer staples rising 5.6%. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 1.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has slipped 2.3%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is down 2.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the top performer, up 3.3%.

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