U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year highs in May, with the 10-year reaching 4.70% and the 30-year briefly breaching 5.00% for the first time since 2007, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data, hawkish Fed commentary, and questions around incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy outlook.
Both yields retreated by month-end, with the 10-year closing at 4.44% and the 30-year at 4.98%, aided by progress on a Middle East peace deal, an in-line PCE reading, and a roughly 15% drop in oil prices.
The month closed constructively,with renewed Middle East peace deal optimism and a roughly 15% drop in oil prices stabilizing sentiment heading into June.
May presented equity markets with a familiar tension between resilient domestic fundamentals and Iran conflict uncertainty, as markets digested April’s rally that carried the S&P 500 above 7,000 for the first time, with oil prices the central variable throughout.
The fundamental earnings backdrop remained supportive, with 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth estimates rising from 15% to 22% since January—we remain constructive while emphasizing balance, diversification, and disciplined rebalancing.
Technology leadership continued to broaden, reflecting growing recognition that AI infrastructure spending benefits extend well beyond the hyperscalers.
Equity Market Overview
May presented equity markets with a familiar tension between resilient domestic fundamentals and the persistent uncertainty of the Iran conflict.
After April’s powerful risk-on rally that carried the S&P 500 above 7,000 for the first time, May proved more measured as markets digested outsized gains while continuing to grapple with the stop-start nature of geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Beyond the AI Hyperscalers
Beyond the AI Hyperscalers
Performance Review & Outlook
Highlights
Equity Market Overview
May presented equity markets with a familiar tension between resilient domestic fundamentals and the persistent uncertainty of the Iran conflict.
After April’s powerful risk-on rally that carried the S&P 500 above 7,000 for the first time, May proved more measured as markets digested outsized gains while continuing to grapple with the stop-start nature of geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Dreams are important.
Aspirations are what help make goals reality.