Tariff Announcements Trigger Sharp Market Volatility: President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on April 2 sparked a dramatic market response, with the S&P 500 suffering one of its worst back-to-back losses in history.
Market Rebounds on Tariff Pause and Easing Trade Tensions: The White House’s 90-day tariff pause on April 9, combined with early signs of easing trade tensions increased market sentiment through the rest of the month, leaving the S&P down only -0.8%.
10 Year Treasury Yields Remain Range Bound: Although we saw some volatility in rates after the tariffs were announced, the 10 Year yield finished the month right where it started.
Inflation Continued to Moderate Ahead of Tariffs: The CPI and PCE prices grew at their slowest pace since 2021 on the back of slower growth from shelter costs.
Earnings Estimates and Valuations Adjusting Amid Uncertainty: The 2025 consensus EPS estimate for the S&P 500 has dropped -3.5% to $264, reflecting the challenges corporations face. However, the relatively modest decline has led to a decrease in the forward PE multiple from 22.5x on February 18th to 20.5x, making valuations more attractive despite potential further negative revisions if trade uncertainty continues.
Haven’t Yet Seen Any Notable Increase in Jobless Claims: Federal workforce reductions have yet to have much impact on the weekly data and we have not seen an increase in continuing claims.
Equity Markets
The S&P 500 experienced a month marked by sharp volatility, primarily triggered by geopolitical and economic developments in April. Early in the month, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs under what he termed “Liberation Day” on April 2. These included a 10% levy on all imports, along with steeper tariffs on countries such as China and the European Union. The market responded swiftly and negatively, with the S&P 500 suffering a historic two-day drop—falling 6.65% on April 3 and another 5.97% on April 4. These declines represented one of the worst back-toback losses in the index’s history and triggered widespread concerns about the global economy.
Market sentiment began to shift after the White House announced a temporary 90-day pause on certain tariffs on April 9th. This news sparked a powerful market rebound, with the S&P 500 surging 8.7%, marking its largest intraday point gain ever and closing at 5,456.90.
The Good, The Bad, and the Uncertain
The Good, The Bad, and the Uncertain
Performance Review & Outlook
Highlights
Tariff Announcements Trigger Sharp Market Volatility: President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on April 2 sparked a dramatic market response, with the S&P 500 suffering one of its worst back-to-back losses in history.
Market Rebounds on Tariff Pause and Easing Trade Tensions: The White House’s 90-day tariff pause on April 9, combined with early signs of easing trade tensions increased market sentiment through the rest of the month, leaving the S&P down only -0.8%.
10 Year Treasury Yields Remain Range Bound: Although we saw some volatility in rates after the tariffs were announced, the 10 Year yield finished the month right where it started.
Inflation Continued to Moderate Ahead of Tariffs: The CPI and PCE prices grew at their slowest pace since 2021 on the back of slower growth from shelter costs.
Earnings Estimates and Valuations Adjusting Amid Uncertainty: The 2025 consensus EPS estimate for the S&P 500 has dropped -3.5% to $264, reflecting the challenges corporations face. However, the relatively modest decline has led to a decrease in the forward PE multiple from 22.5x on February 18th to 20.5x, making valuations more attractive despite potential further negative revisions if trade uncertainty continues.
Haven’t Yet Seen Any Notable Increase in Jobless Claims: Federal workforce reductions have yet to have much impact on the weekly data and we have not seen an increase in continuing claims.
Equity Markets
The S&P 500 experienced a month marked by sharp volatility, primarily triggered by geopolitical and economic developments in April. Early in the month, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs under what he termed “Liberation Day” on April 2. These included a 10% levy on all imports, along with steeper tariffs on countries such as China and the European Union. The market responded swiftly and negatively, with the S&P 500 suffering a historic two-day drop—falling 6.65% on April 3 and another 5.97% on April 4. These declines represented one of the worst back-toback losses in the index’s history and triggered widespread concerns about the global economy.
Market sentiment began to shift after the White House announced a temporary 90-day pause on certain tariffs on April 9th. This news sparked a powerful market rebound, with the S&P 500 surging 8.7%, marking its largest intraday point gain ever and closing at 5,456.90.
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